MODELS FROM THIS MORNING SPLIT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS

THE MODELS GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS THIS MORNING AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING A RE-CURVE NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST SLIGHTLY INLAND NORTH TOWARD GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA'S THEN OUT TO SEA.

THE EURO IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODELS RUN AND ON A WESTERLY TRACK CROSSING ANYWHERE BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND STUART FLORIDA. 

THE NAVY MODEL THAT WAS TRACKING DORIAN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS NOW ALONG THE SPACE COAST AS WELL.  SO YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACKS AND THE REASON FOR THE CONE OF ERROR.

I THINK THOSE MODELS LIKE THE GFS ARE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FRONT ACROSS THE EAST THAT ACTS AS A BARRIER FROM CYCLONES AND ALSO STEERS THEM TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM LAND. 

I AM HOPING ERIN TAKES A BIT LONGER AND WAITS FOR DORIAN SO U.S. EAST COAST FRONT CAN PROGRESS EAST AND AS THE FRONT THAT IS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINS S TO TRACK NORTHEAST-NORTHEAST THEN ERIN WILL FOLLOW ALLOWING FOR DORIAN TO FOLLOW AS WELL.  THESE ARE MY THOUGHTS AND NOT A FORECAST SO WE HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT TO WHAT DORIAN'S NEXT TRACK WILL BE. 

RTW