DORIAN 11AM EDT ADVISORY

DORIAN ADVISORY
1100AM EDT...08/28/19
RTW

WELL MODELS ARE SPLIT AGAIN AND I SEE SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT ERIN AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST THAT COULD HELP STEER THIS STORM A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT.  HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY FLUENT AND THAT COULD CHANGE.  AS IT IS NOW IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SPACE COAST IS IN THE TARGET FOR LANDFALL.  ONCE AGAIN THAT CAN ALSO CHANGE AND AS THE DORIAN GETS TO FIVE DAYS OUT THEN WE MAY HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE STORM WILL END UP.  I DO LIKE SOME MODEL TAKING THE STORM EAST OF THE COAST.  LETS HOPE THAT BECOMES A TREND.

DORIAN IS BEGING TO TAKE THAT COMA SHAPE IN THE CLOUDS AND THAT MEANS ITS ON ITS WAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANYTIME TODAY.  DORIAN WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA THAT IS SAHARA DUST FREE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A CAT. 3 OR 4 HURRICANE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 281459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track,
Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern
Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the
Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

An Air Force plane just estimated a minimum central pressure of
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely
to occur.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:   Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila