TRACK CHANGE PUERTO RICO IN THE CENTER CONE OF ERROR

DORIAN 11PM EDT ADVISORY
AUG 27, 2019...1203 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

LOOKS LIKE THAT JOT TO THE NORTH DORIAN TOOK EARLIER IN THE DAY PUT PUERTO RICO IN CENTER OF THE CONE. 

MODELS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND THAT PUTS PUERTO RICO DEAD CENTER IN THE CONE.  AT THIS TIME THE STORM IS DISORGANIZED BUT ITS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER PUERTO RICO.  LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL FLORIDA IS STILL THE NEXT BULLSEYE FOR DORIAN.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280249
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.0 West.  Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern
Caribbean Sea overnight, pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.
Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and
Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday night, and near or
to the east of the central Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  Some weakening is expected after Dorian
moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico.  Dorian is expected
to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near
or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central
Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles tonight.  Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch