STORM INVESTIGATION TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 23, 2019

STORM INVESTIGATION TROPICAL UPDATE
AUG 23, 2019...1054 AM EDT
Ralph's Tropical Weather- RTW

1.  Storm Investigation 98L continues to become better organized as it tracks closer to the southeast Florida coast.  Models are a bit tighter now that the weak low is closer to us here in Florida.  The question is how far inland will this system go, because that would make a world of difference when it comes to how much rainfall we will get here in the southern Florida. 

EURO model brings the low slightly inland then hugs the east coast until it exits into the Atlantic near Cape Canaveral.  That would bring some rain but not a significant amount, because the bulk of the rain would be remain the Atlantic waters and the Bahamas.

The other models want to bring the low over Florida into the Eastern Gulf then back toward the northeast across Florida and back over the Atlantic.  This track would bring move of the heavy rains over Florida.  This system will not develop much until in moves northeast over the Atlantic waters and away from the coast so no worries here.  Off shore observations wave heights, barometric pressure and wind gust are not significant enough to call this a tropical system.  They are below depression status at times of observation.

NHC Formation chance:

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 2.  A small low pressure system over the Central Atlantic that I noted on yesterdays tropical weather outlook continues to shows signs of some organization.  This low could become a depression or a small tropical storm as it tracks west to a west-northwest toward the Lesser Antilles. 

NHC Formation chance:

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.