Sunday, August 25, 2019

T.S. DORIAN UPDATE AUG 25, 2019


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN UPDATE
AUG 25, 2019...1259 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

Tropical storm Dorian will be a short lived storm as it continues toward the eastern Caribbean where conditions are not all that favorable for strengthening.  Dorian will more than likely reach hurricane strength in the Caribbean but that won't last long as Dorian comes in contact with the rough terrain of Dominican Republic by middle of mid week.  Most of the models suggest a dissipating storm system in the Central Caribbean probably due to Sahara dust/ dry air and possibly wind shear. 
I will continue to monitor Dorian in the coming days. 

A Tropical Storm Watch and Warning has been issued for the following Islands see below NHC Public Advisory

RTW

 
 
National Hurricane Center 
878 
WTNT35 KNHC 251448
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED AS DORIAN
CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados and a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the
Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches could be issued later today for portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands.  Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico,
the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.9 West.  Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by
late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven 








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