STORM INVESTIGATIONS SEPT 12, 2019

STORM INVESTIGATION
SEPT 12, 2019

INVEST 95L CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANYTIME.  THE TRACK TOWARD FLORIDA IS NOW QUESTIONABLE AS THE EURO IS NOW TURNING A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM NORTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA.

IF 95L WOULD CONTINUE AS A DISORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN THE TRACK TO THE WEST OVER FLORIDA WOULD OCCUR, BUT NOW THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, AND THE EURO MODEL IS SHOWING A TROPICAL STORM, THEN THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE INFLUENCED BY ANY COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM.  THIS WOULD HELP TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121148
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila