TROPICAL UPDATE 0357 PM EDT

TROPICAL UPDATE
0357 PM EDT...SEPT 12, 2019
RTW

INVEST 95l STILL IN A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS PREVENTING RAPID DEVELOPMENT FOR NOW.  FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED NO CHANGE TO THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE AT THIS TIME.  AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST THEN THE SHEAR LESSENS GIVING THIS SYSTEM A CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLY TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE TRACK OVER FLORIDA, WELL THAT ALL DEPENDS ON A COLD FRONT /TROUGH TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  QUESTION IS WILL 95L STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST, AND WILL THE TROUGH TRACKING EAST BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TURN NORTHEAST AS SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST,  OR WILL IT REMAIN WEAK AND CONTINUE TOWARD FLORIDA AND ENTER THE EASTERN GULF.

I THINK THE EURO HAS A BETTER GRASP AT WHICH DIRECTION THIS STORM WILL TAKE.  LETS KEEP MONITORING IT.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula.  Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.  Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 BORROWED TROPICAL TIBITS SATELLITE TO DRAW THIS SCENARIO...RTW