STORM UPDATE 0500 PM EDT

1.  KAREN LOOKING ILL DEFINED DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  KAREN WILL STILL BE A FLOOD THREAT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE ISLANDS.

MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT STALLS OUT OR TURN WESTWARD.  EVEN THE EURO MODEL IS NOT SHOWING WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER FLORIDA BUT STILL A RAIN THREAT. 

I CAUTION YOU THOUGH, THESE FORECAST WILL CHANGE EVERY RUN SO WE STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM SURVIVES THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER IT.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR YOU.

2.  JERRY STILL HAS SHEAR OVER IT AS WELL AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED, HOWEVER, JERRY HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD SO STORM BERMUDA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HEAVY RAINS IN SQUALLS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. 

3.  LORENZO SPINNING UP RATHER NICELY LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.  LORENZO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER NIGHT OR TOMORROW.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/