TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
SEPT 10, 2019...1201 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER-RTW

1.  A STRONG WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 23°/21° WEST, HAS SOME STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE WAVE. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SAHARA DUST ALONG THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THIS WAVE.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER WEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORMATION EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

NHC FORMATION CHANCE:

LOW 0% THROUGH 48 HOURS
LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS

2.  A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE KNOWN AS INVEST 94L NEAR 48°/46° WEST HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST.

NHC FORMATION CHANCE:

LOW 20% THROUGH 48 HOURS
LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS

3. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 64°/63° WEST HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WAVES AXIS WHICH IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

4.  A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 70°/64° WEST  HAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORM NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS TROUGH IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY.  THIS TROUGH WILL MORE THAN LIKE ENHANCED RAIN A STORM CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.

NHC FORMATION CHANCE:

LOW 0% THROUGH 48 HOURS
LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS

5.  A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 85°/86° WEST HAS SOME DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVES ACCESS BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

6. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 91°/89° WEST IS VOID OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND WILL SOON BE REMOVED FROM THE ATLANTIC OUTLOOK.

RTW