TROPICAL OUTLOOK AFTERNOON UPDATE

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTERNOON UPDATE

LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS.  RADAR SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AN INDICATION AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING.

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM TO FORM AT ANYTIME.

THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME IS ROUGH SEAS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OFF AND ONSHORE.

AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IT DRAW HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS KEY AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEEKEND.   THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING.  STAY TUNED TO WEATHER UPDATES FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ADVISORIES.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system 
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday 
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The 
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the 
western Atlantic early next week. 

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to 
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind 
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and 
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions 
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas 
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local 
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown