STORM INVESTIGATIONS 0200 PM EDT UPDATE...JUST ADDED INVEST 91L MODELS TO THIS UPDATE

580 
ABNT20 KNHC 211738
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, 
southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic, 
Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.  Gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the 
next few days.  This system is expected to cross the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central 
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and 
Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical 
depression appears to be forming.  If current trends continue, 
advisories could be initiated on this system this afternoon.  
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less 
favorable conditions should limit additional development of the 
system by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

99L IS SLOWLY BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THESE SMALL COMPACT LOWS NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.  DORIAN WAS SMALL AND COMPACT LIKE THIS SYSTEM.