STORM INVESTIGATIONS

547 
ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, 
southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean 
waters.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it 
moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is 
expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today,
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on 
Thursday and Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if 
necessary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in 
association with a low pressure system located about midway between 
the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two 
while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical 
Atlantic.  By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions 
should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven