STROM INVESTIGATION UPDATE 0800 PM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202325
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern 
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters.  Gradual 
development of this system is possible while it moves 
west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is 
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the 
central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and 
Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Shower activity has changed little in association with a weak area 
of low pressure, and its associated tropical wave, located roughly 
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive 
for development of this system during the next couple of days while 
it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.  Late 
this week, however, less favorable conditions should limit 
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A weak area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland 
over Texas later tonight or early Tuesday.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is expected over portions of 
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or 
two.  These rains could result in localized flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi