TROPICAL OUTLOOK STORM INVESTIGATIONS AFTERNOON UPDATE AUG 31, 2020

886 
ABNT20 KNHC 311741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over 
the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since 
yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no 
closed circulation.  However, environmental conditions are expected 
to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while 
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, 
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor 
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is located about 135 miles southeast of 
Wilmington, North Carolina. This system continues to become better 
organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today 
or tonight while the system moves northeastward, near but 
offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States and then 
away from land.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a 
day or two. Gradual development of this system will be possible 
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake