TROPICAL OUTLOOK STORM INVESTIGATIONS...MONITORING A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH A 90% FORMATION CAHNCE.

 

I AM MONITORING CLOSELY A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THAT NOW HAS A MEDIUM 40% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA BY TOMORROW AND

ALSO A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH A 90% CHANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A STORM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THIS SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AT THAT TIME NEXT WEEKEND WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR IT CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENT.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on 
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a 
couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated 
with a surface trough of low pressure.  This system is  forecast to 
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving 
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.   Upper-level 
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly 
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is 
possible while it moves westward and then southwestward 
over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next 
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the 
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is forecast, and 
a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early 
next week while the system moves generally westward across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa this weekend.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the 
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch