TROPICAL OUTLOOK STORM INVESTIGATIONS

 

STILL MONITORING THE SYSTEM IN THE BAHAMAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. 

RTW

745 
ABNT20 KNHC 102330
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on 
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending 
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the 
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a 
surface trough of low pressure.  This system is forecast to 
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving 
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  Upper-level 
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly 
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. 
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce 
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys 
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico.  Although the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity has diminished since earlier today, some slow development
of this system is possible while it moves westward and then 
southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico 
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the 
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is 
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the 
next few days while the system moves generally westward across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa this weekend.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the 
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown