TROPICAL OUTLOOK...INVEST91 L AND NEW INVEST EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES

PLEASE NOTE THAT MODEL FORECAST ARE NOT SET IN STONE AND WHAT YOU SEE COULD BE WRONG.  JUST MONITOR IN THE DAYS TO COME AND BE READY JUST IN CASE A STORM THREATENS YOUR AREA.  THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT BLOCKING A NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THESE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND BLOCKING HIGHS AS WELL. SO WE MAY SEE THESE SYSTEMS MOVE UP AT TIME THEN BACK SOUTH  AS TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH AND HIGHS BUILD OVER AND BLOCK NORTHWARD TRACKS.  JUST COME BACK DAILY FOR ANY UPDATES OR VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011139
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico, 
possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Saturday.  Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula 
of Mexico, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is 
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions 
could become a little more conducive for development when the system 
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

CANADIAN MODEL A BIT AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A HURRICANE  

(PLEASE NOTE THIS FORECAST IS NOT SET IN STONE)

GFS MODEL NOT SO AGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT 

OF THIS THESE SYSTEM