TROPICAL OUTLOOK...STORM INVESTIGATION

568 
ABNT20 KNHC 141134
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of 
the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its 
center.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit 
significant development while the system moves west-northwestward 
over the next couple of days.  Regardless of development, the 
system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles today, the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

BELOW ARE PAST TO PRESENT MODEL RUNS SO YOU CAN SEE THE GFS FLIP FLOPPING

BACK AND FORTH.  THIS IS WHY YOU CANNOT RELY ON LONG RANGE FORECAST TO BE 

ACCURATE.  WHAT I DO SEE IS THAT THERE MORE OF A BAHAMA IMPACT IF IT

WERE TO DEVELOP THAN IN THE GULF.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE MODEL

RUN THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. RTW