TROPICAL OUTLOOK...STORM INVESTIGATION

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles has become 
less well defined since yesterday.  Strong upper-level winds are 
expected to continue to inhibit development while the system moves 
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.  Although 
development is no longer anticipated, the system could produce 
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the 
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over 
the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some 
slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week 
while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing 
about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the 
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

AS LONG AS I CONTINUE TO SEE A TRACK CLOSE TO FLORIDA IT BARES WATCHING.

I KNOW THERE IS NOTHING FORMING YET BUT THESE MODEL SPECIALLY THE GFS

HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A STORM IN THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN

AND TRACKING IT NORTH OVER CUBA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH SOME INSTANCES

OF THE TRACK BEING OVER FLORIDA.