TROPICAL OUTLOOK...STORM INVESTIGATION

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181738
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a non-tropical 
low pressure system located about 600 miles southeast of Bermuda is 
poorly organized and displaced well east of the low-level center.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a 
subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the 
next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast of 
Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days 
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of 
this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly 
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake