TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 17, 2021

 

TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW BUT GFS IS HINTING AT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NICARAGUA COAST AROUND JUNE 2.  THESE LONG RANGE FORECAST ARE USUALLY BOGUS, BUT I WILL KEEP MONITORING IT FOR YOU.

GULF OF MEXICO AND BAHAMAS

GULF IS QUIET BUT THERE STILL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SEVERE STORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA.  

BAHAMAS FAIRLY QUIET BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATER, BAHAMAS, FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE NORTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLUMBIA SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  THERE IS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH IN THIS AREA.  THIS AREA WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD.

NORTH ATLANTIC/ CENTRAL AND COAST OF AFRICA

INTER-TROPICAL CONVERSION ZONE (ITCZ) REMAIN SOME WHAT ACTIVE IN THE LOWER LATITUDES.  THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATER THERE ARE STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS SOME WHAT BUSY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NO SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.  

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

RTW