TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 20, 2021

• STORM INVEST 90L OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME THE FIRST SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2021 SEASON AT ANYTIME.  NOT A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND.

• ALSO I CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN GULF DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVER NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  AS LONG AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS, GUSTY WINDS WHILE SITTING OVER WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF, THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE ALWAYS THERE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INVEST 90L OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201225 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

Corrected distance from Bermuda

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 700 miles east 
of Bermuda.  The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later 
today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast 
to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and 
Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to 
the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move 
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by 
late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low 
pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA 
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

1. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN GULF IS BEING MONITORED BY RTW.
2. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF WHAT USE TO BE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW TRANSITIONING INTO INVEST 90L AND SOON SUB-TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL STORM ANA.
3. THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.
4. OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC THERE ARE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTER TROPICAL CONVERSION ZONE (ITCZ).
5. SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST AFRICAN COAST ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH IN THE AREA.  THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE WEAKENING.

RTW