RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 11, 2021...12:00 PM EDT

 

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 11, 2021...12:00 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

NHC IS NOW MONITORING THE SOUTHERN GULF (BAY OF CAMPECHE) FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK.   FORMATION CHANCE IS LOW 20% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE WEST CARIBBEAN HAS SOME STRONG CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS COAST.  THERE IS A WAVE IN THIS REGION AND STORMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN IT REMAINS QUIET.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATIONS: 

WAVE #1 IS LOCATED NEAR 83°-81° WEST A MONSOON TROUGH THAT LAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS WAVE. THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

WAVE #2 IS LOCATED NEAR 68°-66 WEST.  THERE ARE NO SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS WAVES AXIS.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND COAST OF AFRICA

NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA COAST.  THIS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ).

THE COAST OF AFRICA AND OFF SHORE IS SEEING NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF A MONSOON TROUGH AND A AGGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THIS REGION.  

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATIONS:

WAVE #3 IS LOCATED NEAR 41°-39° WEST.  THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVES AXIS.

WAVE #4 IS LOCATED NEAR 21°-19° WEST.  THIS WAVE HAS NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AGGRESSIVE WAVE.  SO FAR IT SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST LOOKING WAVE THIS SEASON.  

I WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY BUT DRY SAHARA DUST IS ALL OVER THIS AREA AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111143
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over 
the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequent 
slow development of this system is possible as it drifts 
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/