..TROPICAL OUTLOOK SEPT. 27, 2024..

 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Helene, located inland over northeast Georgia and on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical 
Atlantic Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser 
Antilles continues to become better organized. This disturbance is 
already producing gale-force winds. Environmental conditions are 
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm 
could form today while the system moves generally westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to 
slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by 
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves 
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by 
the end of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development 
thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly/Rosado