..TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 1, 2024..

 

I am still monitoring the West Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for this sort of development. The ensemble has mixed signals and is still hinting that something will develop, whether it's a weak depression or just a disturbance. It looks like we will see a chance for heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Florida. So models suggest a stronger system, but once again, it's hard to tell at this time. So another system to watch and see what happens in the coming week. I will keep you posted.

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of 
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. 
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, 
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next 
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Mora