RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 9, 2021...1202 PM EDT

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 9, 2021...1202 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• THE GULF REMAINS STORM FREE FOR NOW, HOWEVER, I WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTHERN GULF FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE HINTING THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM.  

• FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE CARIBBEAN HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE STRONGEST ARE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COLUMBIA COAST AND THE SOUTHERN GULF.  THIS IS DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH INTERACTING WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRACKING WEST OVER THIS AREA.  THERE IS AN INVEST WITH LOW FORMATION CHANCE 10% IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN STILL, HOWEVER, THAT MAY CHANGE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF IN THE COMING DAYS, IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF. 

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET. 

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS MAINLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE ATLANTIC.  ALSO THE INTERACTION WITH MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE AFRICAN REGION AND EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS HELPS TO ENHANCE STORMS AS WAVES MOVE OVER THESE TROUGH ZONE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two.  Significant 
development of this system appears unlikely as it drifts 
west-northwestward or northwestward toward Central America.  
Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall 
across northern Colombia and portions of Central America from 
Honduras southward later this week and into the weekend.  See 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/