RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 15, 2021

 

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

JUNE 15, 2021...11:44AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

THE SOUTHERN GULF STILL SEEING STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MEXICO,YUCATAN, NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92L WHICH REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHERN GULF).

THIS SYSTEM STILL STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH SOME SAHARA DUST OVER THIS SYSTEM AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 70% CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 5-DAYS.

FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA

STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  TROPICAL WAVE #1 MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FROM DISTURBANCE (INVEST 92L) IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STORM FREE WITH EVEN WITH TROPICAL WAVE #2 PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.  THERE IS DRY SAHARA DUST AND AIR IN THE CARIBBEAN.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

NORTH ATLANTIC HAS SHORT LIVED TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE CAROLINA'S MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH BILLS MOISTURE TAIL.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC SEEING SOME STORMS AHEAD TROPICAL WAVE #3 WHICH IS COVERED BY SAHARA DUST.

AFRICAN COAST AND OFF SHORE WATERS SEEING SOME STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS.  TROPICAL WAVE #4  IS BEHIND A OF 1010mb LOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94L WHICH HAS A 20% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of 
Nantucket, Massachusetts. 

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of 
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low 
pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the 
next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during 
that time period.  However, the disturbance should begin to move 
northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
late in the week when the low moves across the central or 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern 
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to 
impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized 
during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave 
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple 
of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of 
dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should limit the chances 
of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bill are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bill are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/