RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 24, 2021...03:36PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241753
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave located over the far east Atlantic off the 
African coast is producing a broad area of showers and 
thunderstorms. As the system moves west-northwestward into the 
central Atlantic Ocean, conditions appear only marginally conducive 
for development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, 
a small tropical depression could still form by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the small area 
of low pressure located about 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados 
has degenerated into a trough. In addition, shower and thunderstorm 
activity has diminished with this system. Unfavorable upper-level 
winds are expected to prevent development of this disturbance while 
moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph.  Even though 
development is not expected, the disturbance could produce increased 
shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser 
Antilles over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi