RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 29, 2021...10:31AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS INVEST 95L AND 97L IN THE ATLANTIC

INVEST 95L MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES, BUT THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT95L WILL BE A SHORT LIVED STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EAST CARIBBEAN.

FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS LOW 30% AND MED 40% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

INVEST 97L THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT 97L WILL SURVIVE AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER, THIS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST RUN AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COMING MODEL RUN TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME.  THE EURO MODEL SHOW LOW PRESSURE WITH AN AREA OF SQUALLS TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM, TRACKING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  

FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 10% AND LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

796 
ABNT20 KNHC 291140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the 
remnants of Tropical Depression Danny, located inland over eastern 
Georgia.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic, about 850 miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles.  Some slow development of this 
disturbance is possible later this week and this weekend while the 
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, likely 
reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little 
better organized since yesterday.  Additional slow development of 
this system is possible during the next several days as it moves 
generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on the remnants of Danny are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on the remnants of Danny are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

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