I AM FOCUSING MY ATTENTION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WHICH IS MORE A THREAT TO LAND THAN 97L AND 98L AT THIS TIME.
NINE IS IN WARM WATERS HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE AREA DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW PASSING OVER FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST OVER THE GULF MEXICO AND DISSIPATE GIVING WAY FOR NINE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS HOW WE SEE IT ON MODELS NOW, AND WE KNOW THAT FORECAST WILL CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT RUN IN THE COMING DAYS. SO FAR THEY ARE CLUSTERED CLOSE TOGETHER AND IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT.
INTENSITY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CAT 1-4 AT LANDFALL IN THE GULF COAST BUT ONCE AGAIN WE CAN NOT FOCUS ON THESE FORECAST SINCE THEY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
GFS, EURO, CMC MODELS SUGGEST A CAT 2 AT LANDFALL WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TENDS TO OVER DO THE FORECAST AND SUGGEST A CAT 4 AT LANDFALL. HOWEVER, I DO HAVE TO ADD, THAT WITH OCEAN TEMPS AS THEY ARE NOW, IT IS PLENTY WARM FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN, DEPENDING ON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BEING FAVORABLE.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 26
Location: 16.9°N 79.2°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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