RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 25, 2021...0338 pm edt

 

AS I MENTIONED ON FACEBOOK POST YOU CANNOT TRUST LONG RANGE FORECAST AND INTENSITY MODELS OUT BEYOND 4-5 DAYS.  JUST KEEP MONITORING FORECAST FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR UPDATES ON 99L

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251758
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical 
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or 
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional 
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding 
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, 
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, 
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, 
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, 
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next 
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to 
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress 
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles 
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is 
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level 
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns 
eastward over the open central Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less 
conducive for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart