RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 25, 2021

 

GOOD MORNING I HOPE YOU ALL HAVING A GREAT DAY!

WE HAVE THREE INVEST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, 97L AND 98L AND 99L IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IF YOU LIVE IN A NORTHERN GULF COAST STATE.

SO LETS TALK ABOUT THE MORE IMPORTANT ONE OF THE THREE 99L.

THIS SYSTEM HAS MEDIUM 40% CHANCE THROUGH 48 HRS AND HIGH 80% THROUGH 5-DAYS.  AT THIS TIME 99L IS ENCOUNTERING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FLORIDA.  SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE FAVORABLE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO VERY FAVORABLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.  THIS CONCERNS ME BECAUSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MAJOR STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPS LIKE WE ARE SEEING THAT IS MOST DEFINITELY FUEL FOR MAJOR STORM TO DEVELOP ON.  STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical 
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the 
south-central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of 
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional 
development to occur. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles 
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is 
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level 
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns 
eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less 
conducive for development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

GFS CALLS FOR MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF

EURO ALSO SUGGESTING A MAJOR STORM IN GULF

CMC MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF