RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 14, 2021...03:45 PM EDT

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241742
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave 
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low 
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late 
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles 
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Little development 
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while 
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds.  
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over 
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg