RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 24, 2021

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last Public Advisory 
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, moving offshore of eastern 
Massachusetts.

1. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles 
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Little development 
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while 
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds.  
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over 
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days from a tropical wave 
currently located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low, 
and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend 
while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 

about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg