RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 31, 2021...AUG 31, 2021

 

MONITORING TOW AREAS THE INVEST OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ONE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THE NEXT MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC.

THE ONE BEING MONITORED IN THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN THAT HAS LOW 0-20% CHANCE FOR FORMATION.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION BUT ITS YET TO BE SEEN.

THE AFRICAN SYSTEM HAS A HIGH 90-90% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME THE NEXT MAJOR HURRICANE.  SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THIS ONE WILL RECOVER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR ANY TRACK CHANCES.

RTW
 

NATIONAL HURRICANE TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311134
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Ida, located over northeastern Mississippi.

A well-defined low pressure system is located over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic, a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of the 
coast of Guinea.  Associated showers and thunderstorms continue to 
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are 
conducive for additional development of this system.  A tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the low 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  Some 
slow development of this system is possible by the end of the week, 
if the system remains over water.  This system is expected to move 
gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward 
Central America. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Ida can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO 
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Reinhart