Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 31, 2021...0337 PM EDT

I AM NOT LIKING WHAT I SEE, AND I HOPE THE 3 MODEL ARE WRONG, DEVELOPMENT IN GULF 2 OR 3RD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR PERSISTENCE.

RTW

NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK

344 
ABNT20 KNHC 311739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Depression Kate, located over the central 
tropical Atlantic.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Ida, located near the Alabama/Tennessee border.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in 
association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles west of the coast 
of Guinea.  If these development trends continue, a tropical 
depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower 
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some slow development 
of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves 
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central 
America.  Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the 
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of 
this system.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Ida can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO 
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Reinhart