RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 5, 2021

 

STORM INVESTIGATION 92L HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 20% AND THROUGH 5-DAYS MEDIUM 60%.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE LATITUDE ITS PRESENTLY TRACKING ON WHICH IS ALONG THE MOIST MONSOON TROUGH REGION, IT WILL MORE THAN ENCOUNTER DRY AIR.  THIS ABUNDANCE OF SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR LAYER WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TO A NORTHWEST IN THE COMING WEEK.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR YOU.

STORM INVEST EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA  HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 0% AND A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS LOW 20%. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is 
expected to move off of the west African coast later today. 
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week 
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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