RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 6, 2021

 

STORM INVEST 92L DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS STILL IS A CHANCE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING THE COMING DAYS.  AS LONG AS 92L STAYS AT THE LOWER LATITUDES THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT IF IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, THEN IT WILL RUN INTO SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR LAYER WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE A SHORT LIVED STORM SYSTEM,  BUT SOME SHOW IT RETURNING AS A WEAK LOW NEAR FLORIDA.  THE WEAKER THE SYSTEM THE FURTHER WEST IT WILL TRACK.  

AS FOR THE INVEST EAST OF THE SOUTH AMERICA THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located a 
few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with 
a tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough.  
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual 
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression 
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic 
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, and 
some slow development is possible early next week as it approaches 
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen