RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 15, 2021

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

478 
ABNT20 KNHC 151129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days.  This system is expected to move westward to 
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next 
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast 
of the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves 
north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi