RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 15, 2021

LOOKS LIKE MODELS WANT TO MAKE INVEST 95L INTO A MAJOR STORM.  CMC IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE MODELS, TRACKING A MAJOR STORM OVER THE BAHAMAS.

GFS FURTHER EAST TRACKING A MAJOR STORM OVER BERMUDA.  

HOWEVER, LONG RANGE FORECAST IS FULL OF ERROR AND WE KNOW THAT FORECAST WILL CHANGE OVER AND OVER AGAIN.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR INVEST 95L CLOSELY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days.  This system is expected to move westward to 
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next 
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Satellite images indicate that a low pressure system located a few 
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas is gradually becoming 
better defined.  However, the associated showers and thunderstorms 
are still disorganized.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves 
north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently enroute to 
investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

CMC CANADIAN MODEL

GFS AMERICAN MODEL