RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 16, 2021

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of 
Louisiana. 

Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly less organized in 
association with a tropical wave located a little more than 800 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  However,  
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
still likely to form late this week or this weekend.  This system 
is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the 
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning over 
the eastern portion of a broad area of low pressure located about 
250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form 
during the next day or two while the system moves northward to 
north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this 
week and this weekend. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance  
this afternoon. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
are associated with a tropical wave that will move off the west 
coast of Africa today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over 
the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

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