RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 16, 2021

 

NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK

867 
ABNT20 KNHC 161737
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of 
Louisiana. 

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad 
area of low pressure located a little more than 900 miles west- 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become less organized since 
yesterday.  However, environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical 
depression is still likely to form over the weekend.  This system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical 
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of 
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of 
the Outer Banks of North Carolina are beginning to show some signs 
of organization. However, recent satellite wind data suggest that 
the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  An Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has just begun its investigation 
of the disturbance.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive to support additional development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while 
the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast 
and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts.  Regardless of development, this 
system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week and this weekend. 
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction 
Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave along the 
west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system  
should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system 
moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown