Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 18, 2021

WELL THERE IS STILL THAT SIGNAL OF TWO SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE/ COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN 95L AND 97L NORTH AND EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.

MODEL ANIMATION BELOW SHOW THESE TROUGHS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR DIPPING SOUTH AND EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC STEERING ODETTE, 95L AND 97L. THERE IS A LOW THAT GFS SHOWS RISING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN NORTH INTO THE GULF BUT THE SHEAR IN THE GULF KEEPS IT AS A WEAK SYSTEM.

I CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE DISTURBANCE AND ANY FUTURE DISTURBANCE IN THE COMING DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181731
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Odette, located a few hundred miles southeast of 
Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 650 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands continue to show signs of organization.  However, 
satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago indicated that the 
system does not yet have a well-defined surface circulation.  Only 
a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the 
formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is 
expected to occur later today or tonight while the low moves toward 
the west-northwest at about 15 mph.  This system is expected to be 
near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and 
interests there should monitor its progress.  Upper-level winds are 
likely to become less conducive for development when the system 
reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of 
next week.  Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A low pressure system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few 
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues 
to show some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form over the next couple of days while 
moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph to the west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.  This system is expected to reach cooler waters and 
an area of stronger upper-level winds early next week, which could 
limit its development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg