RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 17, 2021

 

96L NOW TROPICAL STORM ODETTE MOVING OUT TO SEA WILL BECOME A LARGE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND IN SIZE.

MODELS STILL SHOWING 95L TURNING NORTH AND SOME WEAKEN IT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.

GFS SHOWS A NEW INVEST 97L TRACKING NORTH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A MAJOR STORM AS TROUGH STEERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172327
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Storm Odette, located a couple of hundred miles off the 
Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. 

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles 
east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development 
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form during the next day or two while the system moves toward the 
west-northwest at about 15 mph.  This system is expected to be near 
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests 
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.  Upper-level 
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the 
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part 
of next week.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of 
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move toward the west and 
then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and 
some gradual development is possible over the weekend.  However, by 
early next week, further development appears unlikely as the system 
is expected to move into strong upper-level winds and over cooler 
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

IN THIS MODEL ANIMATION YOU CAN SEE INVEST 95L WEAKENS PER THE GFS MODEL AS IT TURNS NORTH BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHILE THE NEW INVEST 97L IF IT MAKES IT THIS FAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AND STEERS NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC BY ANOTHER TROUGH.