RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 3, 2021

 

INVEST 91L HAS A 0% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HRS AND 30% THROUGH 5 DAYS.  BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN GULF AND NORTH OF THERE.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME IN THE GULF BUT NOT FAVORABLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED OVER THAT AREA.  MODELS ARE NOT REALLY SHOWING STRONG DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 1100 miles 
west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. 

A surface trough over portions of Central America and the 
southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  This system is expected to move 
west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally 
heavy rains to these areas.  The disturbance is expected to move 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, and then 
move northwestward to northward over the western Gulf of Mexico 
early next week.  However, unfavorable upper-level winds could limit 
significant development during that time.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven