RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021750
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred 
miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. 

A small area of low pressure over northeastern Nicaragua is 
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over 
portions of the western Caribbean Sea.  A portion of the low's 
circulation could move over the Gulf of Honduras on Friday.  
However, development there, if any, is expected to be slow to occur. 
This system could then move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico 
during the weekend and early next week, but by then strong 
upper-level winds would likely limit significant development.  
Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible across portions 
of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
about 280 miles southeast of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands 
continue to show signs of organization.  Some development of this 
system could occur during the next 12-24 hours as the low moves 
generally westward at 10-15 mph.  After that time, conditions 
are expected to become less conducive for development.  Interests 
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

18Z-12Z-06Z GUIDANCE MODEL TREND