RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

736 
ABNT20 KNHC 021459
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to introduce a new system 
located to the east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred 
miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. 

A small area of low pressure over northeastern Nicaragua is 
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  A 
portion of the low's circulation could move over the Gulf of 
Honduras on Friday.  However, development there, if any, is expected 
to be slow to occur.  This system could then move over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week, 
but by then strong upper-level winds would likely limit significant 
development.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible 
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula 
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that a 
low pressure area has formed about 300 miles east-southeast of the 
southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and that the associated showers 
and thunderstorms show signs of organization.  Some additional 
development could occur during the next 12-24 hours as the low 
moves generally westward at about 15 mph.  After that time, 
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.  
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Papin