...SPC...AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

 

STORM PREDICTION CENTER https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

 Mesoscale Discussion 1884
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions
   of northeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230723Z - 231000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A period of intensifying thunderstorm development appears
   possible prior to and through daybreak, with perhaps a few storms
   becoming capable of producing severe hail.

   DISCUSSION...Bands of convective development with embedded
   thunderstorms have gradually evolved across the region, aided by
   large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection,
   generally rooted above a cool/stable boundary-layer.  Further
   strengthening of west-southwesterly flow (in excess of 40 kt) just
   above the surface through around the 850 mb level is forecast
   through 09-12Z, as a subtle mid-level perturbation digs
   east-southeastward from the higher plains.  It appears that this
   will be accompanied by further low-level moistening, in addition to
   enlarging hodographs within the elevated storm inflow layer. 
   Furthermore, model forecast soundings suggest that increasing lift
   will begin to cool/destabilize an initially relatively warm/stable
   layer near or below 500 mb.  As this occurs, a period of
   intensifying discrete storm development appears possible, perhaps
   accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail, before stronger
   convection begins to consolidate and the low-level jet begins to
   weaken after daybreak.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38129664 38009563 37689426 37489391 36989379 36699473
               36739592 37069729 37609735 38129664