...GFS NO LONGER SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL POP UP AGAIN MORE THAN LIKELY...

 

THE GFS MODEL IS NO LONGER SHOWING A STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN, BUT I BELIEVE IT WILL POP UP AGAIN IN FUTURE MODEL RUN.  THE CMC SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE EURO STILL NOT SHOWING ANYTHING.  THE NOAA FORECAST PREDICTION CENTER DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY TRACKING A TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

WE HAVE NEW INVESTIGATION EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THAT WOULD NOT BE A THREAT.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A 0% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 48 HRS AND A 20% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 5 DAYS.

I WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE CARIBBEAN SINCE THOSE STORMS COULD TRACKING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S..

RTW

I PUT A RED SQUARE BELOW FOR OCT 27-NOV 2 POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  EACH OF THOSE MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT POSSIBLE LOCATIONS WHERE THE SO CALLED TROPICAL SYSTEM WOULD DEVELOP.