...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...

 

NATL. HURRICANE CENTER TROPIC OUTLOOK

761 
ABNT20 KNHC 111732
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands 
continues to produce showers and a couple of thunderstorms. Recent 
satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system has not 
developed a well-defined center. The potential for development of 
this system has decreased, and strong upper-level winds should 
prohibit further development on Tuesday. Regardless of development, 
the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on 
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave located south of Hispaniola is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are 
not expected to support development of this system for the next day 
or two. However, some gradual development is possible beginning on 
Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next 
couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky